Some Thoughts on the Polling Data

Looking at the election results for the Chris Canon vs. John Jacob race in the 3rd District, I noticed and interesting pattern. First, let’s see if you can see any patterns, so here is the data:

Precincts Reporting CHRIS CANNON JOHN D. JACOB
Totals 623 623 100% 32,306 55.8% 25,589 44.2%
Juab 5 5 264 52.3% 241 47.7%
Salt Lake 323 323 10,044 51.3% 9,525 48.7%
Sevier 23 23 2,714 69.6% 1,187 30.4%

source – http://electionresults.utah.gov/ (county percentages added)Okay, did you see the same pattern that I did? Yep, that’s right. Look at the rural counties (Beaver, Juab, Millard, Sanpete, and Sevier). Jacob received roughly half of the votes that Cannon did in these counties.

Jacob only faired well (but not too well), in the urban counties (Salt Lake and Utah, which has its rural areas). It was almost and even split on the votes for both areas.

If you combine the rural counties and the urban counties I think the story is more telling.

Precincts Reporting CHRIS CANNON JOHN D. JACOB
Totals 623 623 100% 32,306 55.8% 25,589 44.2%
Urban 544 544 25,796 53.6% 22,326 46.4%

adapted from previously shown data from http://electionresults.utah.gov/

So, what are we to draw from this. I really don’t know. But if you will allow me to theorize it is one of two possibilities.

First, the rural areas want illegal labor in order for them to succeed, and thus, they want to keep Cannon in so that they can get their work done. This doesn’t really paint them in a good light, because it means that they are hiring this labor, which means we aren’t as ethical of a state as I would like.

Or, one could conclude that urban areas are suffering more from the immigration problem. We see a great increase in crime. We see a great burden on our tax dollars. So, we are voting to get rid of illegal immigrant support.

I understand that Jacob wouldn’t have won even on the urban vote alone, so a majority of Utahns don’t want to reduce immigration. But I think that there is an interesting pattern here.

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