Is the Race between Chaffetz and Cannon Really Tight?

Okay we all know that the Deseret News’ cheif editor is Chris Cannon’s Brother, Joe Cannon. And we are all confident that Mr. Cannon would never let his paper show bias towards any candidate, right? (wink, wink, nod, nod).

However, their recent news article on polling shows that bias again in two ways. As with all polling done by Dan Jones and associates, their polling numbers are outrageously low.

For this politcal survey Dan Jones managed to poll a whopping total of 203 potential voters. To see this total look at this lovely graphic and read the parenthetical phrase at the bottom. It is interesting that nowhere in the article do they mention the 203 number.

I will give them credit for sharing the +/- 7 percent with us. But what few people understand is that +/- 7 percent is directly related to the number polled. Had they polled another 200 or even 800 individuals the could have had a +/- 5 percent or +/- 3 percent, respectively.

Sure if the results would have remained 39-37 (for Cannon), then it would have still been too close to call. However, we won’t know because the polling was incomplete.

The second issue is that they polled independent voters and said that would be the key to Chaffetz winning the race. While the numbers here are still suspect. That isn’t the key problem for me. The problem I have is that they fail (complete neglect) to mention that Utah has closed primaries. This is something the Mr. Bernick is aware of, because he wrote a piece about this 2 years ago. Ooops. This point is mute moot. I completely missed it in the article. But I am still suspicious about the stats.

If you are an Independent voter, you need to register as a Republican. Why would Bernick and his editor not mention that in their article? Perhaps, they don’t want the independent voter to register to vote. Perhaps, They would like to keep the status quo.

If you are an independent and you want to see Chris Cannon out, don’t wait for the general election. It is very likely that our next Congressman will be decided on June 24th and not in November. Register yourself to as a Republican, even if you feel like you have hold your nose while you do so.

If you are an independent and you want to see Jason Chaffetz win, then now is the time to act. Go to your county clerk’s office or website and register as a Republican. It is the number one way that you can show your support for Mr. Chaffetz.

To me this is just another blatant example of poor politcal reporting by the Deseret News and another example of the main stream media trying to influence the vote. Don’t let their lack of reporting this properly influence you and your decision.


Here is a list of counties in the Third District and how to register (or renew your registration as a Republican):

Salt Lake County Voter Registration

Utah County Voter Registration Q & A (form – pdf)

Juab County Clerk’s Office (email)

Sanpete County Clerk’s Office (scroll down for voter information and this form – pdf)

Millard County Clerk’s Office (Just use the same form as the other counties)

Sevier County Voter Registration Information (form – pdf)

Beaver County Clerk’s Office (form -pdf)

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16 Responses to “Is the Race between Chaffetz and Cannon Really Tight?”

  1. Anonymous Says:

    You missed a critical paragraph in that column. Before being too overly critical, you might want to read things a little more carefully.

    From the article:

    “The Utah Republican Party has closed its primary. Only those who are registered Republicans and those who are political independents who are willing to register as a Republican at the polls on primary day can get a Republican ballot.”

  2. Travis Grant Says:

    Ooops!!! I have egg on my face now. I don’t know how I missed that. Perhaps I was too focused on the stats, and looked over this. I officially recall my comments on the issue of not informing us about registering as Republicans. But I still find the stats to be very suspect.

  3. Great Scott! Says:

    An interesting perspective. I didn’t realize the margin of error was so closely linked to sampling size, but now that you mention it it does make sense.

  4. Paul Says:

    Nice reporting. thanks for letting us know how that works, really helps to see whats going on. I just want to say that I feel its to bad when a man wants to serve and does so thinking he is doing what is right, then to find out all along that the people want a say in what is happening. NO one man or woman has all the answers or can understan the issues without help from the people that put him in to represent them. Sadly Mr Cannon has learned the hard way that people want someone that will listen to them and then vote, after all thats all we want. Then if we still don’t like what he is doing, Its time to find somone that will listen and vote along the lines that we belive in. I’m sure glad that I have someone that will listen and act the way I feel is best, no no one is going to do just what I want, but come on maybe 80% of the time not just 20 % of the time. Its good to know that my voice will be heard. Thanks Jason Chaffetz for running and putting up with all that Cannon and his people are giving you. It takes a specail person to do that and keep going.

  5. Alan K Says:

    Personally, I think Chris is a decent guy. I’d probably enjoy sitting across from him at a family picnic or at a Republican dinner. But, (the inevitable ‘but’) he has failed to represent Utah when he goes to Washington.
    Chris has his own agenda and more of us are aware of it every election cycle. For the most part Chris votes conservative on the issues. But then, so would most Republican candidates.
    Chris fails to represent Utah when he votes on Illegal Immigration issues. I can’t look the other way on that one.
    If we replace Chris we can send the message to all of our Legislature that we will eventually tire of politicians who fail to properly epresent us.

  6. Jynx Says:

    In some counties voters can register as a Republican right at the polls when they go to vote. You independent voters who are disenchanted with Chris Cannon (as I am) can vote as a Republican in the Primary — then register as in independent the very next day if you choose. It is legal — and in this case — it is prudent !

  7. youngster Says:

    My husband is a Libertarian who usually registers as Independent, but for this race he is registering as a Republican so he can vote in the primary. Like alan k says, Chris is a nice enough person, but we don’t feel he’s doing ENOUGH of what we sent him there to do. Jason strikes us as a person with some backbone and conviction, and hopefully will have the ability to resist political games when he gets to Congress.

  8. Travis Grant Says:

    Scott,

    Yeah, I don’t know how many people actually understand what margin of error means, but the Deseret News seems to act like they do, so I give people the benefit of the doubt.

    Alan,

    Chris is probably a really nice guy. When he approached me at the convention, he seemed cordial enough. I am sure that Chris tries to be a good party-line Republican, but I I don’t like where the party-line is going. It is time to send a message that we want to get back to the conservative constitutional nation we once were. Glad you see it like I do.

    Jynx,

    Thanks for the comment. It amazes me how many people refuse to register as a Republican (or Democrat) on principle. I am a principle man, but you can’t move an organization towards your side if you aren’t a part of the organization. Glad to hear that you are willing to make a change to make a difference.

  9. Adam Says:

    Before the Republican state convention very few people would have suspected that Cannon was going to be ousted by Jason Chaffetz, but it came very close to happening. The informed electorate overwhelmingly supported Jason and I think the more people compare the two candidates factually, the conclusion is obvious, Utah needs Jason Chaffetz!

  10. Travis Grant Says:

    Youngster,

    Thanks for sharing about you and your husbands desire to make a positive effect on this campaign and this state.

    Adam,

    I concur completely. It doesn’t take much effort to realize who is the more conservative and best candidate for Utah.

  11. Jurri Says:

    This is one reason why I respect Mr. Chaffetz for not using any polling in his campaign. They are rarely all that telling and are usually not statistically significant.

    If there were only 202 polled, how many of that 202 were registered “Strong Republicans.” The margin of error would be even greater on that stat, and would be even less statistically significant.

  12. I'm for Chaffetz Says:

    Yes indeed. Please, please, PLEASE register as a Republican and vote for Chaffetz!

  13. Kely Says:

    The point is MOOT not mute.

  14. Travis Grant Says:

    Jurri,

    There are sooooo many questions that one could ask about the 200 some respondents to the survey. Your is one of them. But you could also ask, where did they live? Is it largely in Salt Lake and Utah Counties? Are Small towns well represented? It is very suspect. Thanks for you comment.

    I’m for Chaffetz,
    Thanks for commenting. I am happy with the response of people who are willing to sign up as a Republican to make the right decision.

    Kely,
    Boy, it is obvious, that I should have just rolled over and stayed in bed this morning. Perhaps, one of my most highly read posts, and it is covered in error after error. Oh well, there is always tomorrow.

  15. Jane Doe Says:

    In my neighborhood, people are ready for a change and disenchanted with Cannon. Jason is a breath of fresh air, rather than politics as usual.

  16. Emily E. Says:

    I would like to see this race turn out in Jason’s favor. He is sincere and stays on track with the issues. That’s what we need in congress.


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